Early warning signals in plant disease outbreaks
نویسندگان
چکیده
Correspondence Sirio Orozco-Fuentes Email: [email protected] Summary 1. Infectious disease outbreaks in plants threaten ecosystems, agricultural crops and food trade. Currently, several fungal diseases are affecting forests worldwide, posing a major risk to tree species, habitats and consequently ecosystem decay. Prediction and control of disease spread are difficult, mainly due to the complexity of the interaction between individual components involved. 2. In thiswork,we introduce a lattice-based epidemicmodel coupled with a stochastic process thatmimics, in a very simplifiedway, the interaction between the hosts and pathogen. We studied the disease spread by measuring the propagation velocity of the pathogen on the susceptible hosts. Quantitative results indicate the occurrence of a critical transition between two stable phases: local confinement and an extended epiphytotic outbreak that depends on the density of the susceptible individuals. 3. Quantitative predictions of epiphytotics are performed using the framework early-warning indicators for impending regime shifts, widely applied on dynamical systems. These signals forecast successfully the outcome of the critical shift between the two stable phases before the system enters the epiphytotic regime. 4. Synthesis: Our study demonstrates that early-warning indicators could be useful for the prediction of forest disease epidemics through mathematical andcomputationalmodels suited tomore specificpathogenhost-environmental interactions.
منابع مشابه
How to select a proper early warning threshold to detect infectious disease outbreaks based on the China infectious disease automated alert and response system (CIDARS)
BACKGROUND China Centre for Diseases Control and Prevention (CDC) developed the China Infectious Disease Automated Alert and Response System (CIDARS) in 2005. The CIDARS was used to strengthen infectious disease surveillance and aid in the early warning of outbreak. The CIDARS has been integrated into the routine outbreak monitoring efforts of the CDC at all levels in China. Early warning thres...
متن کاملEstimating the Effectiveness of Early Control Measures through School Absenteeism Surveillance in Observed Outbreaks at Rural Schools in Hubei, China
BACKGROUND School absenteeism is a common data source in syndromic surveillance, which allows for the detection of outbreaks at an early stage. Previous studies focused on its correlation with other data sources. In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of control measures based on early warning signals from school absenteeism surveillance in rural Chinese schools. METHODS A school absen...
متن کاملElectronic surveillance of outbreaks in Lebanon
BACKGROUND This paper describes and assesses the electronic surveillance of outbreaks based on the early warning for four endemic diseases - typhoid fever, amebic dysentery, viral hepatitis A and brucellosis - in Lebanon, for the first 28 weeks of 2005 and first 26 weeks of 2007. METHODS The electronic early warning system is based on the mandatory notification of 37 targeted diseases. The fo...
متن کاملEstablishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013
PROBLEM On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. APPROACH A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outb...
متن کاملA cost-effectiveness analysis of three components of a syndromic surveillance system for the early warning of epidemics in rural China
BACKGROUND Syndromic surveillance systems (SSSs) collect non-specific syndromes in early stages of disease outbreaks. This makes an SSS a promising tool for the early detection of epidemics. An Integrated Surveillance System in rural China (ISSC project), which added an SSS to the existing Chinese surveillance system for the early warning of epidemics, was implemented from April 2012 to March 2...
متن کامل